A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
