How The Unusual Campaign Redefined the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.
Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.
But the latest race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.
This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.
The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!
Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.
Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record
Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.
Still